NASA warns chances of asteroid hitting Earth have increased
Astronomers are keeping a close watch on a newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, due to a slightly increased, though still very low, possibility of it impacting Earth.
Originally spotted on December 27, 2024, by an asteroid detection system in Chile, the asteroid's potential for collision has been analyzed by both European and American space agencies. Initial estimates from the European Space Agency (ESA) put the impact probability at 1.2%, but subsequent observations have adjusted that figure to 2.2%. NASA's independent analysis indicates a slightly higher probability of 2.3%. Despite these increases, the overall likelihood of an actual impact remains quite small.Here are the key details known about asteroid 2024 YR4:- Discovery: It was first identified in late December 2024 by a NASA-funded asteroid survey station located in Chile.
- Size Estimate: The asteroid's width is estimated to be somewhere between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 100 meters).
- Potential Collision Date: The date of closest approach, and therefore potential impact, is estimated to be December 22, 2032.
- Impact Chance: The ESA calculates a 2.2% chance of a collision, while NASA's analysis suggests a 2.3% probability.
- Ongoing Monitoring: Both the ESA and NASA are actively monitoring the asteroid. Ground-based telescopes, participating in a global asteroid warning network, will continue to observe it while it remains visible until April 2025. The James Webb Space Telescope is also scheduled to observe the asteroid in March 2025 to get a better assessment of its size.
- An international network dedicated to tracking asteroids has issued an initial notification regarding the potential, however small, impact risk posed by 2024 YR4.
- Currently, the asteroid is rated at Level 3 on a scale used to communicate impact hazards, which signifies an event warranting attention from both the scientific community and the general public.
- Scientists believe that as they gather more data, they'll be able to refine their understanding of the asteroid's size and trajectory, which are essential for accurately assessing the potential for a future collision.
- As more data about the asteroid's orbit is collected, the probability of an impact will become clearer. In the past, similar objects initially flagged as potential risks have ultimately been ruled out as threats. However, it's also possible that the assessed risk level could increase with further observations.
- The next opportunity to gather additional observational data will occur in 2028.